Donald Tsang learned a right or wrong lesson?

2006-08-09 - chong
|

Lam Heng Chi, the Hong Kong famous columnist, said that Chief Executive Donald Tsang learned the wrong lesson from Singapore. Instead of the experience of training political talents, Singapore's management system of foreign currency reserve is something we should learn. According to his calculation, the investment company that handles Singaporean government's foreign currency reserve achieves an annual gain rate as high as 9.5%. Since 1997, Hong Kong's foriegn currency reserve has increased only at 3.65% each year, from 90 billion to 120 billion.

If you have one hundred thousand dollars and put it in long-term time deposit, you will get a similar growth rate. You don't need to pay Director Yum Chi Kong a few millions of Hong Kong dollars. You don't need fund managers. Most important, you don't need a wealth of more than 120 billion.

Is the ability of Hong Kong financial elites compatible with their income? I often find it questionable. Or as my colleage Professor Hui Po Keung said, "they are unrelated".

I want to make a small remark on Tsang's trip to Singapore which is only a trick but revealed his fantasy. Donald surely knows that Singapore's People's Action Party is so overwhelming that it penetrates into all classes and rules for decades. It controls most seats of parliament. The opposition force is reduced to minimum and the media rarely expresses dissident voices. My Malaysian friend told me that many Singaporean dissidents went abroad. Despite occasional media control and political oppression in Malaysia, she is still a paradise for them. Donald Tsang dreams of turning Hong Kong into Singapore? Does he feel jealous of the People's Action Party's power?

Donald intends to expand his ruling camp by appointing vice-secretrary and assistant secretrary for his bureaus. I have a suggestion. Why don't go to Malaysia? The ruling alliance of the Malaysian government includes 14 parties. There are more than 100 cabinet members. My Malaysian friend guessed his government's cabinet might be the biggest one in the world! The ruling party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), uses this strategy to maintain its dominance.

I don't know if Donald follows this path. But we'd better be alert. Yet there is a big difference between Hong Kong and Singapore or Malaysia: Hong Kong's Chief Executive is not allowed to be political party member by the Central Government.

Photo: The Cydonian

18 Apr16:29

Does any Hong Kong politician

By hoidick

Does any Hong Kong politician have the courage to dare?
Submitted by ESWN on Fri, 2006-08-11 22:22.

The first issue is very simple in terms of modern portfolio management theory and practice.

For an investment portfolio, there are tradeoffs between risks and returns. Hong Kong prefers to invest in US Treasury Bonds which are guaranteed to yield low returns with zero risk of default. If you want higher returns, you will have to invest in stocks that have great risks, including negative returns. If you want the highest returns, you will have to invest in junk bonds that may have zero return.

No Hong Kong politician has the courage to play with the public's money.

The thing about portfolio theory is that a smart and aggressive investor will do better than a conservative one in the long-run. However, it means that there will be occasional setbacks. In the contemporary Hong Kong political environment, any temporary setback brings political death. The second that the Secretary of Finance loses any money, the Legislators will want his head on a pike. Therefore, no Hong Kong politician will do anything except for the conservative investment in US Treasury Bonds.
» delete | edit | reply
Political factor
Submitted by chong on Sun, 2006-08-13 02:58.

I guess you're right. In the investment portfolio, the ratio of stock to bonds is 20:80. Quite conservative. Lam didn't mention the political factor.
» delete | edit | reply

License